MONTHLY MULLINGš”
Strong Opinions, Loosely Held, Amazon's Secret Sauce, and Ego is the Enemy
Hiš,
Tapan here.
Monthly Mulling is a newsletter sending the best ideas from the web to your inbox for free. High signal. Low noise.
If you were forwarded this email, you can subscribe here and join a community of 130+ readers.
Happy Sunday yāall!
I was recently a guest in Yudi Jās podcast. I talked about my journey from Mumbai -> Syracuse -> NYC -> London. You can listen to the full episode here.
Also assuming you like reading Monthly Mulling, do you prefer to receive the newsletter on Sunday or Monday? Sunday | Monday
Letās get started, shall we?
š³STRONG OPINIONS, LOOSELY HELD (3 mins)
I have 'strong opinions, loosely held' written on my blog, bio, and my journal. It's a reminder.
I briefly touched on it in my Life Principles post (read it here if you haven't).
So what does it mean? It's a reminder to keep an open mind but form quick strong decisions.
A person can form strong opinions only when they have learned, experienced, and understood an idea. At the same time, if you're not forming an opinion, you're just indecisive.
If you keep churning on an idea, youāre not making progress. It's important to make decisions, quickly.
When you're at the crossroads, go back to your models and principles, your past experiences, and make a decision. Gather the information you have, go through it, and make a decision.
You know when people say, I have a gut feeling. The gut feeling only comes from your past experiences and reflection*. It's your intuition.
The better your models, the better is your gut feeling. Stronger is your intuition.
But, going by your gut feeling? Is that a good way to make a decision? That's where the loosely held part comes in.
As new information uncovers and you learn more, don't be afraid to change your decision. Donāt cling to your original idea or decision even in the face of contradictory information just because you made that decision. If you find contradictory information, your decision was wrong, it's a sunk cost. Move on.
In fact, it's important to find contradictory information that is completely against your idea or decision.
As Richard Feynman puts it in the Character of Physical Law, āWe are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.ā
Finding contradictory information will bring you closer to the truth and help you strengthen your decision.
I read this idea, like most of the ideas, in Tools of Titans by Tim Ferriss in the Marc Andreessen chapter. The idea was actually first published by (I could be wrong here) Paul Saffo.
This is Saffoās process for āStrong Opinions, Weakly [Loosely] Held.ā
āAllow your intuition to guide you to a conclusion, no matter how imperfect ā this is the āstrong opinionā part. Then āand this is the āweakly heldā partā prove yourself wrong. Engage in creative doubt. Look for information that doesnāt fit, or indicators that pointing in an entirely different direction. Eventually your intuition will kick in and a new hypothesis will emerge out of the rubble, ready to be ruthlessly torn apart once again. You will be surprised by how quickly the sequence of faulty forecasts will deliver you to a useful result.ā
Now like all mental models, the map is not the territory. It's important to use this wisely.
Imagine working for a manager who keeps flipping on their decisions as soon as new information is put forward. The people below that manager will end up redoing things again and again. It will be dreadful.
Also, as James Clear puts it, most topics in life are not worth having an opinion about. Some decisions need time and are irreversible where this model won't work. Using this model to find your better half will be a definite disaster.
So next time you're making a decision try this out - gather information quickly, make your decision, seek disconfirming evidence, change your decision, if it needs changing.
This process will not only strengthen your confidence in your decision but also, bring you closer to the truth.
*Please note, I am not talking about gut feeling in the system 1 and system 2 sense written by Kahneman and Tversky in Thinking, Fast and Slow but in the sense of making system-based decisions through mental models.
šMULLING
š§ A (Brief) History of Rationality by Alex Belser (Video- 8 mins)
Itās basically what the title suggests - it covers research on heuristics, biases, behavioral economics, and much more. A great 8-minute summary!
š¤« Amazon's Secret Sauce for Innovation by Deepu Asok (Newsletter - 4 mins)
Visual Wisdom (Deepu Asok) shares some really amazing ideas. If youāre interested in mental models and decision-making, would definitely recommend subscribing.
In the latest issue, he talks about how Jeff Bezos makes a decision. The idea is taking from Talebās Antifragile. Itās a good mental model to have - Optionality.
Itās a strategy where you pursue a large number of options where the potential downsides from errors are small while the potential upsides are large or in some cases unlimited.
As Naval Ravikant would say, itās an asymmetric bet.
šTREAT YOā SHELVES
Check out my 2021 Reading Challenge page (read 30-pages per day). You can join us on Goodreads, we have a group for the challenge!
READING CHALLENGE 2021
I finally finished my first couple of books in the challenge.
EGO IS THE ENEMY BY RYAN HOLIDAY
Book summary in one line: You can be aspiring to be successful, maintaining your success, or recently have been failed - in all three stages, the ego is your worst enemy
Important Lessons: If your belief is not dependent on your actual achievement, then ask yourself if it is dependent on your ego?
If you think you already know something, you will never learn. Tame your ego. Be a perpetual student.
Favorite Quotes: He who indulges himself in empty fears, indulges himself in real fears.
A SHORT HISTORY OF NEARLY EVERYTHING BY BILL BRYSON
Book summary in one line: As humans, we don't know much about our existence; Bill Bryson tries to make sense of what we know till now.
Important Lessons: It's a miracle that everything fell into place and we all are alive. The probability of Earth was minuscule but yet here we are, against all odds.
A lot of things that we know today was because of the work of a lot of people who spent their lives seeking answers, the truth.
Favorite Quotes: If you were to pick yourself apart with tweezers, one atom at a time, you would produce a mound of fine atomic dust, none of which had ever been alive but all of which once been you.
I am currently reading
The Heart of Buddhaās Teaching by Thich Nhat Hanh
Sapiens: A Graphic History: The Birth of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari
Algorithms to Live By by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths
šPODCASTS
š WHAT THE HAT!?
š§ Harsh Swaminarayan talks about a Career in education, Mental Models, and How to be a Constant Learner
š Manan Mehta on Embedded Software, Argo AI, and Leaving No Stones Unturned
š§ APPLEĀ |Ā SPOTIFYĀ |Ā YOUTUBEĀ |Ā GOOGLE PODCASTĀ | ANCHORĀ |Ā CASTBOXĀ |Ā STITCHER |Ā JIOSAAVN |Ā WEBSITE
š°COLD BREW MONEY
š² Macro Indicators
š¤ Life Skills That We Are Not Taught in School - click here for my article on the same topic.
š§ APPLE | SPOTIFY | YOUTUBE | GOOGLE PODCAST | ANCHOR | CASTBOX | JIOSAAVN
boi boi.
Do you think any of your friends will like Monthly Mulling like you? Share it with them!š
If you like Monthly Mulling, let me know! You can reach out to me on Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, or just reply to this email!
Note:Ā Some items listed above are Amazon affiliate links. This means I receive a tiny commission if you make a purchase after clicking through some of the images/links above, at no additional cost to you (i.e. the prices donāt change).