MONTHLY MULLINGš”
Changing World Order and Decision-Making Framework
Hiš
TapanĀ here.
Monthly Mulling is a bi-monthly newsletter sending the best ideas from the web to your inbox for free. High signal. Low noise.
Happy Sunday yāall!
š“ I am currently vacationing in Bombay! If you live in Bombay and want to hang out, hit me up (in case you donāt have me on social, email me)!
Also, todayās newsletter will be relatively shorter. I considered taking a break this month but decided against it. I didnāt want to break the streak that I have had running since June 2020!
Currently,
šWhat I am reading: 100 to 1 In The Stock Market by Thomas Phelps
šŗWhat I am watching: Formula 1: Drive To Survive
šµWhat I am listening to: Binge listening to Ali Sethi - Chan Kithan and Pasoori are absolute favourites right now
Letās get startedš
šMULLING
š Changing World Order by Ray Dalio (YouTube: 43 mins)
If you have 43 minutes to spare this weekend, do watch this amazing video by Ray Dalio. Ray drops these gems on his channel periodically and this video is one of the best.
Also, please take this video with a grain of salt. Ray has simplified a lot of complex concepts into neatly packed ideas identifying a set pattern to enforce his point. The world, most of the time, doesnāt function that way!
Here are some key points from my notes.
š World Order Is Cyclical
History repeats itself. World orders rise, stagnate, and fall. It has been repeating since the Roman empire, Indian, Chinese, French, Dutch, English, the US, and others.
The 10 steps in this process involve:
Major conflict establishes a new world order
A period of peace & prosperity in the new world order with a focus on education, innovation, and technical advancement
This results in an increase in betting on the peace & prosperity of that country through borrowing money
This leads to a financial bubble which leads to more trade using the currency of the new world order
The new world order establishes the reserve currency which leads to more betting consequently increasing the size of the bubble
This gives rise to unequal wealth distribution leading to a wealth gap
Eventually, the bubble bursts, leading to a) the increase in money printing, b) increased internal conflicts due to the increasing wealth gap, political tension, and anxiety of the future
This leads to an internal revolution as the power of the world order diminishes
This also might lead to external conflicts as there is no one strong world order to maintain peace at a global level
Step 9 establishes a new world order and you start againš
š Three Principles
The three principles Ray explains in this video are:
Whenever the government prints a lot of money during a crisis you should buy stocks, commodities, and gold
Study history - To understand what is coming at you, study what happened before you. Always look at the past!
A countryās greatest war is with itself
Ray Dalio through this video hints a lot at China being the next world order and the US declining in its power. What are your thoughts?
š¤·š½āāļø Why The Hell Not? by Jason Fried (Article: 4 mins)
I really enjoyed reading ReWork by Jason Fried and this article provides a helpful framework for making decisions.
Whenever Iām struggling with a decision that seems āunusualā, I remind myself that just because everyone else does something one way doesnāt mean you have to do it that way. Sometimes itās just worth saying why the hell not and going for it.
Donāt take the processes at face value. Break it down using First Principles and if youāre doing something different, ask āwhy the hell not?ā.
šPODCAST - COLD BREW MONEY (CBM)
If youāre a listener, thank you so much! Can I ask you to share the podcast with one friend/family this weekend? It will help us grow the podcast.
We have made major changes to the CBM format
Episodes are shorter (5-10 mins)
We are adding memes and breaking the monotony of the videos
Video focused (rather than audio) and better editing
If you have any other feedback, please let us know!
š„ FIRE as an Indian Immigrant Couple In The US!: FIRE means Financial Independence, Retire Early. Putting your finances in order to retire early is a good strategy. In this episode, we talk to Parth about how he is planning on retiring early!
šStock Market Chaos: Hereās What We Are Doing: You must have noticed that the stock market is in chaos right now. We share 5 things we are doing for the recent crash.
š°Charlie Munger On Investing During High Inflation!: With inflation rates in the US as high as 7.9%, we share advice from Charlie Munger and Ray Dalio on what to do in such times for your investment.
Do you think any of your friends will like Monthly Mulling like you? Share it with them!š
Thanks for reading. If you like Monthly Mulling, let me know. You can reach out to me onĀ Instagram,Ā Twitter,Ā LinkedIn, or just reply to this email!ā¤ļø